I note this article by Lawrence Solomon only because I, like most people, assumed that if we in Western countries were as nuclear-powered as France, then most of our problems with power generation would be solved (and if you think that carbon emission is a problem, that as well).
But I was wrong. Dead wrong.
“If France can produce 80% of its electricity with nuclear power, why can’t we?,” asks U.S. presidential candidate John McCain. Nuclear power is a cornerstone of Senator McCain’s plan to combat climate change, which he is unveiling this week.
McCain thinks he is asking a simple rhetorical question. As it turns out, he is not. His question is technical, with an answer that will surprise him and most Americans. Nuclear reactors cannot possibly meet 80% of America’s power needs — or those of any country whose power market dominates its region — because of limitations in nuclear technology. McCain needs to find another miracle energy solution, or abandon his vow to drastically cut back carbon dioxide emissions.
Unlike other forms of power generation, nuclear reactors are designed to run flat-out, 24/7 — they can’t crank up their output at times of high demand or ease up when demand slows. This limitation generally consigns nuclear power to meeting a power system’s minimum power needs — the amount of power needed in the dead of night, when most industry and most people are asleep, and the value of power is low. At other times of the day and night, when power demands rise and the price of power is high, society calls on the more flexible forms of generation — coal, gas, oil and hydro-electricity among them — to meet its additional higher-value needs.
If a country produces more nuclear power than it needs in the dead of night, it must export that low-value, off-peak power. This is what France does. It sells its nuclear surplus to its European Union neighbours, a market of 700 million people. That large market — more than 10 times France’s population — is able to soak up most of France’s surplus off-peak power.
The U.S. is not surrounded, as is France, by far more populous neighbours. Just the opposite: The U.S. dominates the North American market. If 80% of U.S. needs were met by nuclear reactors, as Senator McCain desires, America’s off-peak surplus would have no market, even if the power were given away. Countries highly reliant on nuclear power, in effect, are in turn reliant on having large non-nuclear-reliant countries as neighbours. If France’s neighbours had power systems dominated by nuclear power, they too would be trying to export off-peak power and France would have no one to whom it could offload its surplus power. In fact, even with the mammoth EU market to tap into, France must shut down some of its reactors some weekends because no one can use its surplus. In effect, France can’t even give the stuff away.Not only does France export vast quantities of its low-value power (it is the EU’s biggest exporter by far), France meanwhile must import high-value peak power from its neighbours. This arrangement is so financially ruinous that France in 2006 decided to resurrect its obsolete oil-fired power stations, one of which dates back to 1968.
Now read on
(I’ve taken out all of the stupid formatting to leave the essential claims. Persuading Piers to leave the formatting as bland as possible has been a futile exercise)
The Long Range Forecasters
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946 Fax +44(0)20 7939 9901 E:piers@weatheraction.com
www.weatheraction.com or for Europe including News and now to buy WeatherAction 45day ahead weather forecasts for selected European countries via PayPal - visit our European site www.lowefo.com
For further information contact Piers Corbyn office above or +447958713320 / +447507426264
News Release for 06.00hrs UT Thurs 12 June 2008
Weather Action Long range trail forecasts for World weather extremes
Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction Long range forecasters today (June 12) - in a dramatic new move towards developing long range extreme weather forecasts for anywhere in the world - predicted that the first tropical storm of the US season will form (85% likely) around 18th June.
“We expect it to start in the Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico region and soon develop into Hurricane strength and make landfall (75% likely) or near landfall by 21 or 22 June in Florida / Southern States or possibly Cuba or (less likley) the west side of the Gulf .
“This Tropical storm will be associated with severe tornado events in central / SouthEast parts of the USA while New York /NorthEast USA are likely to be unusually cold” said Mr Corbyn. “After that we are 90% confident the storm will quickly die and the period 23 June to 5 July will be essentially storm free” he said.
There is at present (June 13th) no forecast for any US Tropical Storms on the USA official hurricane and weather service Service sites. This is the 5th of WeatherAction’s trial forecasts of extreme weather events in the USA this year. The success rate (for three major blizzards and a spell of severe tornadoes) is 4/4 so far*.
Mr Corbyn currently also has an active summer period forecast for exceptional torrential downpours and floods in Britain at the end of June / start of July which will disrupt Wimbledon tennis and Glastonbury festival (see below)
These trial forecasts are created using WeatherAction’s revolutionary Solar Weather Technique which uses predictable aspects of particle and magnetic affects from the Sun to make forecasts of certain extreme events in various parts of the world. At this stage they are not intended to forecast all extreme events (as do the full forecasts for Europe and Britain) - only a selected few. The forecasts are available to customers months ahead and made public one to four weeks ahead of events.
The expected success rate at the present level of research is about 6 successful for every one which is unsuccessful. For an ongoing monitor of the WeatherAction (SWT24e) extreme June-December 2008 forecast world trials and latest news visit Weather Action’s world extreme events forecast link on www.lowefo.com .
Two forecasts have been made so far this (N hemisphere) summer - the USA Tropical storm forecast above and the British end-June/start July deluge forecast below which was carried in The Sun on 4th June (page 18).
Weather Action June 2008 Forecast Media summary Statement (Available 3rd June2008 at 00:00hrs)
Exceptional Deluges likely to hit Glastonbury and Wimbledon
Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction Long range forecasters today (June 3rd) warned that WeatherAction’s June forecast is predicting exceptional deluges, thunder and floods around the end of June and start of July and specifically that ‘Glastonbury festival & Wimbledon Tennis are likely to be hit by exceptional deluges of torrential rain’. This warning has a high (85%) confidence and is part of WeatherAction’s full forecast for this June which spells out the timing and region detail of weather through the month. Piers said “We are again experiencing stark changes and extreme weather events all over the world triggered by the high sensitivity of magnetic and particle links between the sun and Earth during this general period of transition between an odd solar cycle - 23 - and even cycle 24″.
Fuller information via www.weatheraction.com
The June issue of WeatherAction forecast bulletin carries an article on the latest development in the challenge to the UN Climate Committee (IPCC) by ‘the gang of 4′ scientists
For latest visit www.weatheraction.com for report: “No response from UN Climate Committee to challenge by ‘gang of 4′ scientists. Is UN split? ”
Thank you
So there you have it. I do not endorse Piers’ predictions because I don’t know what his method is - nobody but Piers does, although they are claimed to be derived from observations of the Sun.
I simply copy them here and we’ll see over the course of the Hurricane Season how accurate they are.
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